Uncertainty propagation in structural reliability with implicit limit state functions under aleatory and epistemic uncertainties
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Epistemic versus Aleatory Judgment Under Uncertainty
Both cases involve judgment under uncertainty, with a mixture of evidence supporting and opposing each event’s likelihood. Yet, they involve what appears to be two qualitatively distinct representations of uncertainty. In the first case, Allie’s uncertainty reflects the unpredictability inherent to a stochastic process (i.e., random draws from the pool of Bingo numbers). This type of uncertaint...
متن کاملJudgment Extremity and Accuracy under Epistemic versus Aleatory Uncertainty
People view uncertain events as either knowable in principle (epistemic uncertainty), as fundamentally random (aleatory uncertainty), or as some mixture of the two. We show that people make more extreme probability judgments (i.e., closer to 0 or 1) for events they view as entailing more epistemic uncertainty and less aleatory uncertainty. We demonstrate this pattern in a domain where there is ...
متن کاملJudgment Extremity and Accuracy Under Epistemic vs. Aleatory Uncertainty
David Tannenbaum,a Craig R. Fox,b Gülden Ülkümen c aDavid Eccles School of Business, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah 84112; bAnderson School of Management, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90024; cMarshall School of Business, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California 90089 Contact: [email protected] (DT); [email protected]...
متن کاملNumerical Probabilistic Analysis under Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty
This paper discusses Numerical Probabilistic Analysis (NPA) for problems under aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. The basis of NPA are numerical operations on probability density functions of the random values and probabilistic extensions. The numerical operations of the histogram arithmetic constitute the major component of NPA. The concepts of natural, probabilistic and histogram extensions ...
متن کاملNumerical accuracy and efficiency in the propagation of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties
The need to differentiate between epistemic and aleatory uncertainty is now well admitted by the risk analysis community. One way to do so is to model aleatory uncertainty by classical probability distributions and epistemic uncertainty by means of possibility distributions, and then propagate them by their respective calculus. The result of this propagation is a random fuzzy variable. When dea...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Eksploatacja i Niezawodnosc - Maintenance and Reliability
سال: 2021
ISSN: 1507-2711
DOI: 10.17531/ein.2021.2.3